ForecastIQ Says "Don’t Expect Big Bounce Back"
It appears that the downward spiral of same store sales growth has stabilized according to the November ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC) as there is some improvement for retailers. However, this isn’t necessarily good news because the majority of retailers tracked are likely/almost certain to see a decrease in same store sales now through January.
Most of the positive movement year-over-year in retailer forecasts was going from “almost certain” to see a decline in same store sales to “likely” to see a decline; which although encouraging, doesn’t translate into growth. The retailers who moved up slightly to likely to see a decline include: Nordstrom, Old Navy, Saks, American Eagle, Bon-Ton and Wet Seal.
On the other hand, bright spots continue to be the retailers with a discount offering. Ross and TJX are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over the next six weeks. Youth-oriented retailers Aeropostale and Buckle are also poised to see an increase.
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline through December follows:
Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
Buckle Abercrombie & Fitch Ross Dillard’s Neiman Marcus
TJX Gap Stage
Hot Topic Steinmart
JC Penney
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
Aeropostale Cato’s
BJ’s Children’s Place
Costco Nordstrom
Flat:
Banana Republic Bon-Ton
Fred’s Wet Seal
For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ™: www.forecastiq.com
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